Wednesday, June 09, 2004

BBC: Is the world's oil running out fast?

The adherents of the peak oil theory warn the decline of world oil output will force oil prices higher for good, and that the knock on effects could be catastrophic.
"In my opinion, unfortunately, there will be no linear change," says Iran's Ali Bakhtiari. "There will only be sudden explosive change."
"The people who will be least affected will be the super poor, who already have no access to energy, and the super rich who do not care if oil is $100 a barrel.". . .
He pinned his hopes for an increase in production squarely on troubled Saudi Arabia.
"If Saudi does not increase supply by 3 million barrels a day by the end of the year we will face, how can I say this, it will be very difficult. We will have difficult times. They must invest."
Can Saudi deliver? But even Mr Birol admitted that Saudi production was "about flat". Three million extra barrels a day would mean a huge 30% leap in output in just a few months. . . .
And the number of major new oil fields discovered around the world fell to zero for the first time in 2003, despite an obvious increase in technological expertise.
"We need transparency with the figures," says Dr Campbell. "This avoids profiteering from shortages, the collapse of poor countries and it will stimulate alternatives.". . .
"Consumer countries need to be able to audit fields, but at the same time 'flat earth' economists who believe in endless growth need to change their ideas." And Dr Campbell has a dire warning: "If the real figures were to come out there would be panic on the stock markets, in the end that would suit no one." "

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