Tuesday, June 08, 2004

fxstreet.com: The beginning of a multi-week stock market crash may have started on April 6th, 2004.

"A quick thumbnail explanation of Fibonacci numbers: Leonardo Fibonacci was a 12th century mathematician who noticed that certain numbers and ratios were evident throughout nature on a repetitive basis. Those numbers create a sequence where the prior two add up to equal the next. They are 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, etc. The ratio of the two prior numbers is always .382 and .618 of the next number in sequence. For example, 13 is .382 of 34 and 21 is .618 of 34 and 13 plus 21 equal 34. Architects and artists have found that structures built in these phi ratios are the most pleasing to the eye. The human body is loaded with Fibonacci numbers and ratios. Five fingers, five projectiles (two hands, two legs, and 1 head), two ears and eyes, etc. The height of most people is in a .382 to .618 ratio divided by the navel. For a fascinating discourse on all this, I recommend Robert Prechter's book, The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior and the New Science of Socioeconomics, available at www.elliottwave.com. The point is, this unique phi ratio is also apparent in time and price movements of the market. Why? Because markets are governed by people's emotions, whose moods swing predictably according to the natural order of phi ratios as designed by God. . . .
Bottom Line:
Equity markets are primed and ready, gas tank filled, for a long journey south. Analogs with past crashes remain valid, Fibonacci time patterns point to an imminent decline, interest rates should rise, and money supply is being injected into the economy as if a crisis is about to occur. The stage is set for the next stock market collapse. Defensive strategies are warranted."

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