Wednesday, June 23, 2004

PINR: ''Rebuild or Retreat: America's Strategic Dilemma''

"The most severe consequence of America's failed intervention in Iraq is its exposure of American military limitations and vulnerabilities.
The failures of the intervention are manifold. Some of them can be chalked up to poor planning and excessive optimism -- both fueled by utopian neo-conservative ideology -- but others have revealed structural weaknesses.
Just to name a few of the latter: reliance on private contractors to perform key missions at inflated prices, flawed intelligence, overuse of reserve troops, redeployment of troops from South Korea and extensions of the duration of combat duty. All of the foregoing point to the same root problem: the United States military is underforced for any major project of nation building in absolute numbers and, more importantly, in the distribution of specialties.
The occupation has revealed that America lacks the capacity to neutralize insurgent movements, run prisons effectively, procure actionable intelligence and conduct successful public relations. Most importantly, it has proven unable to provide the basic function of government: personal security in the forms of public safety and basic services.
The world now knows that there will not be another pre-emptive war launched by the United States in the near or medium term. Not only is America tied down in Iraq, but it showed that it is ill-equipped and ill-prepared for nation building in the weakest member of the "axis of evil" -- the one that had been beaten down by economic sanctions and that harbored an anti-regime population, except for the Ba'athists and their tribal connections. American defense intellectuals and security leadership are aware of the reassessment of American power that is occurring globally, and the dilemma that it poses for American strategic policy.
The hard choice that now faces the United States is whether to rebuild its military power so that it can undertake not only wars, but their aftermaths; or to retreat into a more defensive posture, opening the way to multi-polarism. Each option has its costs and its benefits. Which one is chosen will depend on the decisions of the security leadership in the United States and its ability to persuade or frighten the American public to accept its policies."

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