Saturday, June 05, 2004

SafeHaven.com: Put/Call Ratio Soaring

"In just the past couple weeks, an extremely intriguing anomaly has arisen in the US stock markets. The famous Put/Call Ratio 21-day moving average has soared above 1.00 for the first time in at least a decade! This odd development is vexing bulls and bears alike.
The Put/Call Ratio, or PCR, is a powerful technical trading indicator that monitors the stock and stock-index bets that speculators are making at any given time. Speculators who expect individual stocks or the indices to fall in the months ahead buy put options, derivatives bets which increase in value when prices decline. Speculators who expect rising prices buy call options, which promise hefty payouts on higher prices.
The PCR quantifies the ratio of the daily trading volume in these two opposing bets, granting speculators valuable insights into what the majority happens to be expecting. When the PCR is above 1.00, as today, it literally means that the daily trading volume on puts is higher than calls. Translated into pure sentiment terms, it indicates that the majority probably expects lower prices in the months ahead. And since we humans are naturally bullish, a PCR above 1.00 is an extraordinarily rare event."

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